Two signals price every World Cup team, and they do not always agree. The Kalshi prediction market sets a real-money probability for each side to win the tournament. Our SquadScore rates each squad on league-adjusted 2025/26 player form. Run one against the other and most teams line up: the better the squad, the shorter the price. Four teams broke that line before a ball was kicked, and the group stage is now testing which signal was right.
The gap is the market residual: the difference between a team's actual Kalshi price and the price its squad quality predicts. A positive residual means the market pays more than the squad data justifies. A negative residual means the market is discounting a squad the ratings rate highly.
| Team | SquadScore (rank) | Kalshi to win | Squad-implied | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 6.97 (1st) | 19.4% | ~8% | +10.1 pp |
| Morocco | 6.52 (10th) | 2.4% | ~6% | −3.9 pp |
| Croatia | 6.43 (13th) | 0.5% | ~5% | −4.1 pp |
| Senegal | 6.46 (11th) | 0.5% | ~5% | −4.5 pp |
France carries the largest premium in the field. Among the contenders, Senegal carries the largest discount. Croatia and Senegal are both top-13 squads that the market prices like teams making up the numbers. The results so far split cleanly down that line.
The four teams above are the edges of one chart. The Market vs Quality card on SquadRanks plots all twelve contenders on two axes: squad quality along the bottom, market price to win the tournament up the side. A dashed line runs through the cloud of teams, the best fit between quality and price. Sit above the line and the market pays you more than your squad quality predicts. Sit below it and the market pays you less. The distance from the line is the residual, shown on the card as the "vs Exp." column in percentage points, and it is what sorts the table here.
| # | Team | Squad | Odds | vs Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 6.97 | 19% | +10.1 pp |
| 2 | England | 6.91 | 13% | +5.0 pp |
| 3 | Spain | 6.89 | 13% | +4.9 pp |
| 4 | Argentina | 6.68 | 11% | +4.5 pp |
| 5 | Brazil | 6.59 | 6% | +3.8 pp |
| 6 | Portugal | 6.72 | 7% | +1.2 pp |
| 7 | Germany | 6.54 | 6% | +0.4 pp |
| 8 | Netherlands | 6.75 | 7% | +0.2 pp |
| 9 | Belgium | 6.55 | 2% | −3.8 pp |
| 10 | Morocco | 6.52 | 2% | −3.9 pp |
| 11 | Croatia | 6.43 | <1% | −4.1 pp |
| 12 | Senegal | 6.46 | <1% | −4.5 pp |
The field splits into three groups. Five favourites sit above the line: France, England, Spain, Argentina and Brazil all carry a premium, the tax the market puts on teams the public already trusts. Three sit almost on it: Portugal, Germany and the Netherlands are priced within a point of where their squads land, the rare case of market and data agreeing. Four sit below: Belgium, Morocco, Croatia and Senegal are the squads the market discounts. Three of those four are the teams this article follows. Belgium is the quiet fourth, a top-eight squad the market prices at 2% to win.
France did not earn a +10.1pp residual by being overrated as a team. They top the SquadScore table at 6.97, with the best goalkeeping line at the tournament (Maignan, 6.91) and the most valuable starting eleven by a distance (€954M). The residual is a separate point: even the strongest squad in the field maps to roughly an 8% chance to win once you hold quality constant, and the market prices France at 19.4%. The extra ten points are prestige. France reached the 2018 title and the 2022 final, and that recent pedigree buys a premium that pure squad form does not.
Through one match, the premium held. France beat Senegal 3-1 in their opener, the highest-quality fixture in Group I, and did it as clear favourites. The squad data and the market both expected France to win that game, and France won it comfortably.
The reservation the ratings carry is not about the starting eleven. It is depth. France's drop from XI to bench is 0.24 points, wider than Spain's 0.10 or Argentina's flat 0.00. A premium priced for a 39-day, seven-game tournament is a bet that France stay healthy. The group stage rarely punishes thin benches. The quarter-finals do.
Morocco is the cleanest win for the squad model so far. The ratings put them 10th, a top-third squad, while the market priced them 11th in win probability at 2.4%, closer to an also-ran than a contender. Two matchdays in, Morocco are unbeaten on four points.
They opened by holding Brazil to a 1-1 draw as heavy underdogs, then beat Scotland 1-0. That is the profile of a side the market underpriced: not a team that needed an upset, but a team good enough to take points off a seeded opponent and then close out the game it was favoured in. The squad data saw the quality the win-the-tournament odds discounted.
The ratings are not blind to Morocco's weak spots. Their goalkeeper line scores 5.78, the lowest among the tracked contenders, and their bench at 6.06 is the thinnest of the group. A 0.07 depth gap says the drop-off from starters to reserves is small, because the starting level itself is more modest than France's or Spain's. None of that stopped them banking four points against Brazil and Scotland. A squad rated 10th playing to its rating is exactly what a −3.9pp discount was missing.
Croatia and Senegal both lost their openers, and neither result refutes the discount the data flagged. Croatia lost 4-2 to England, the second-rated squad in the field. Senegal lost 3-1 to France, the first. The squad model would have predicted both teams to lose those exact fixtures. A bargain call does not require a team to beat everyone. It requires the team to be better than its price against the rest of the schedule.
Croatia scored twice against England and now face Panama and Ghana, sides the market favours them to beat. Senegal scored against France and still have Norway and Iraq to come, with a 6.39 bench that is the strongest of the four discounted squads. The −4.5pp discount on Senegal was the largest among the contenders, and it priced a top-11 squad as a non-factor. One loss to the tournament's most expensive team has not changed that the data rates this squad well above 0.5%.
The two extremes have resolved fastest. The market's biggest premium (France) backed its price up by winning the one game that tested it, and the market's deepest discount that has had a winnable schedule (Morocco) is unbeaten and proving the ratings right. The two losers lost only where the model expected them to.
The argument that is still open is the one that matters most. France's premium is a knockout-round bet, and the group stage cannot settle it. Morocco's discount is being paid off now, in real points, against real opponents. If a team rated 10th keeps beating the price the market set, the gap between what a squad is and what a crowd will pay for it is worth more than two cents on a contract.
